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Air travel shows a narrower range but on average emits more CO2 than any other mode. Projections and scenarios The analysis presented in ETP 2008 has been updated and is presented here in more detail. A few new features have been added. Changes from the transport analysis in ETP 2008 include: æ The Baseline scenario projection has been updated to reflect the more recent World Energy Outlook 2008, WEO 2008 (IEA, 2008b).
It results in a 40% reduction in CO2 below 2005 levels by 2050. indd 30 1/10/09 12:01:01 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 31 The BLUE Map scenario The BLUE Map scenario is the “foundation” scenario for this study. It shows that a 30% reduction in transport CO2 emission in 2050 compared to 2005 can be achieved by the uptake of technologies and alternative fuels across all transport modes that cost less than USD 200 per tonne of CO2 saved. Under this scenario, improvements in transport energy efficiency offer the largest and least expensive CO2 reductions, at least over the next ten years.
Net negative CO2 reduction costs are achievable at least for much of this improvement. But it will be important that the efficiency gains are not simply offset by trends toward ever larger, heavier and faster cars. Policies will be needed both to ensure maximum uptake of efficiency technologies and to translate their benefits into fuel economy improvement. Fuel economy standards perhaps complemented by CO2-based vehicle registration fees can, and already do, play an important role around the OECD.